Last year, the Almanac predicted many of the 2021-2022 winter storms, most notably: the early-season nor'easter in the end of October, and the unusual blizzard in the last week of April (in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas). WINTER SEASON 2022/2023 FIRST LOOK FORECAST - Severe Weather Europe Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a warmer than usual winter. January climate data across southeast Arizona. Arizona Winter Weather Outlook The Farmers' Almanac predicts winter will be wild in much of the United States, but pretty average in Utah. Additionally this is the fifteenth April in the past seventeen that the airport recorded below normal rainfall. 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Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says for our region, in the North Central . Elizabeth Hoy, a senior scientist at NASA,. The wather in Arizona in February can vary between cold and nice weather days. One of the strongest thunderstorms of the month hit the airport on the evening of the 23rd with a wind gust of 76 mph. Coming off one of the WETTEST years on record in 2021 where the airport recorded 15.19", the outlook called for enhanced probabilities for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for the remainder of the year. In northern Arizona, its snowy and chilly, though usually still quite dry. US Dept of Commerce Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.67" is 1.57" BELOWnormal & ranks as the 14th driest January through March period on record. While its critics say its weather predictions are essentially a flip of the coin, Geiger said in general he has been told the forecasts are about 80% accurate and are especially on target when it comes to winter forecasts. Additionally, there were five record temperatures that were either set or tied. The Spring seasonal forecast for the area, issued February 17th, called for a 46% chance of above normal temperatures & a 42% chance of below normal precipitation. Weather Today Weather Hourly 14 Day Forecast Yesterday/Past Weather Climate (Averages) Currently: 36 F. One record temperature was set during the month. Then it smashed that record. Severe thunderstorms hit portions on the metro area on the 21st and 26th. In my long range forecast for the season, I predicted 7-14 of rainfall with a likelihood of 10-14. As we mentioned above, one of the best things to do in Arizona in the winter is camping and/or hiking, but of course, there are more! This has also occurred in August 1963 & February 1905. The widely followed youtube weather channel, is calling for a mixed bag of weather this upcoming winter season. What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? Last winter, Boston finished the season with. The deep monsoonal moisture that was over the area for most of the month started to dry out during the last week of the month under a drier upper air pattern. But if it weakens, that could spell a colder winter for some. Precipitation: Below Average Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. Click Here To Join The Season Tier, Join The Main Arizona Weather Force Facebook Group (50 percent delivery time) You can join the main AZWF page as well through that group. The seasonal average temperature of 71.0 goes into the record books as the 5th warmest Spring on record. An statistical oddity occurred in 2022 in that not one daily rainfall record was set at the official recording site. For the third year in a row, the La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to bring a lack of precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures for not just Arizona, but the entire U.S. Southwest. That contrasts sharply with a likely warmer-than-usual February along the northern Gulf Coast, including Florida. Even as we swelter through the last stretch of summer's "dog days," the upcoming winter outlooks for the 2022-2023 season from the Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmer's Almanac are enough to send shivers down one's spine. Discover our growing collection of curated stories on Washington State. There were only seven days that recorded triple digit highs, which is eight days below the normal of 15 days for August. In December, the best chance of at least somewhat colder than usual temperatures is expected in the East, from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. First 2022 Seasonal LONG RANGE Winter Forecasts from NOAA La Nia conditions can have varying effects on weather patterns around the world. The monthly average temperature of 89.1 is 3.0 ABOVE normal and ranks as the 5th warmest June on record. Officially, 7.41" of rain was recorded at the International airport which ranks, in the 128 year climatic record period (1895-2022) for Tucson, as the 13th driest year on record. There are other puzzle pieces besides La Nia to consider in the forecast, which leads us to the next question. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 83 on the 14th to a low of 26 on the 3rd. View detailed forecast, WeatherTAB 2023. There were five days that recorded freezing low temperatures at the airport which is up from the three that occurred in the previous winter but down five from the 1991-2020 normal period. The Official NOAA Winter Outlook for 2022-2023 has been released and as of right now the odds are slightly tilted towards below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the desert. (Weather station: Payson, USA). The last day of 2022 was dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Spring ended on a streak of 63 consecutive days with no rain being recorded at the International airport. The exception is the summer thunderstorm season where the forecast for precipitation is a 36% chance that they will be above normal and a 31% chance that they will end up below normal. The yearly rainfall total of 6.14" at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, ranks as the 15th driest January through October period on record. For more detailed information, click the link below. Whether the polar vortex stays strong or weakens at some point in winter can definitely impact the forecast. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 2.82" which is just over eight-tenths of an inch above normal and ranks as the 34th wettest August on record. The La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to extend through winter for the third year in a row, bringing below-average rain and snow and above-average temperatures. We say absolutely! La Nia refers to cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean, near the equator. Dry and warmer temperatures were on tap from the 17th to the 22nd. The possibilities are all there you just need to discover them. Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January,. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin was at 133 percent of the 30-year historical average as of Monday, and sits at 101 percent of what the basin has received on average through an . The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded a trace of rain which is well below normal and ranks as the 16th driest November on record. Tracking NFL Coaches Fired After 2022 Season Kliff Kingsbury and Lovie Smith are the latest NFL head coaches to be fired By Max Molski Published January 9, 2023 Updated on January 9, 2023 . This month the airport recorded 9 days which is the highest amount dating back to 1948. READ MORE Monday, March 28, 2022 Flagstaff Weather -- March 28, 2022 Gone are the ridiculously hot days, replaced with pleasant, mild ones perfect for hitting the trails in places you generally shouldnt hike in the summer (Phoenix comes to mind). In winter 2020-21, the polar vortex weakened, and even though La Nia was in place, a major cold outbreak contributed to the 19th-coldest February on record in the Lower 48. Here are some of the monthly rainfall highlights during 2022: Rainfall totals across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged from 6"-13" across the metro area with significantly higher totals in the surrounding mountains. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2023. Winter 2022-2023 should be dominated by an active storm track in the eastern half of the country, running from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northeast, across the Virginias, and across interior New York State and New England. Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from a tenth of an inch to 1" with localized areas recording between 1" and 1.60". 'A nice sign': Big Rockies snowpack may boost Lake Mead There are indications that weak cutoff systems under the raging jet could bring more precipitation to Tucson than say even Phoenix, but the amount just doesnt look so high, but bears watching for that area sometime mid-month. Weather Forecast Office. The seasonal average dew point value was 19. Scottsdale, Arizona Weather Forecast | AerisWeather Local News Sports Politics Opinion For Subscribers . March 2023; April 2023; May 2023; June 2023; July 2023; August 2023 . According to its forecast map, Arizona's fall theme will be cool with "decent precipitation." Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmers' Almanac, said there wasn't much particularly interesting. The monthly average temperature of 84.7 is just under 2 above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest September on record, tied with 2010. La Nia - the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters - is in play as one of the primary drivers for the winter outlook once again this year. Youll definitely want to check out some of our favorite, We say absolutely! A Strong 2024 La Nina and a new "Cold Pacific Ocean Phase" will usher in Dangerous . The combined two-day rainfall totals for New Year's Eve/Day across the metro area ranged from 0.50" to 1.50" with the bulk of the rain occurring on New Year's Eve. Alaska through Central and Northern Canada to Greenland. And I will say, it looks opposite of December 2021s with a different atmosphere and this is for both Southern California and Arizona Weather Force so read on for details after the first paragraph . That's more in line with what's typically expected in La Nia winters. If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. You'll receive your first newsletter soon! Thus expect the consecutive year streak of above normal temperatures to be extended to 25 years. Colorado smoke coming from Arizona wildfire; temps near 100 forecast Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 103 on the 6th to a low of 65 on the 17th. Fetch the Scottsdale, Arizona daily observations from AerisWeather. He also said that in its more than 200 years of printing, only seven people have done the weather, with each working for about 30 or 40 years andthey have applied that sameformula. Geiger explained that the almanacs predictions come from a formula created by the first editor of the publication, who was a mathematician and an astronomer. (100 percent delivery time) Crawford's expectation for a stronger polar vortex this coming winter implies colder air will overall be bottled up in more northern latitudes. Nearly 10,000 power outages were reported in Arizona Wednesday as a winter storm passed through the state, one of many places in the U.S. dealing with winter
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